The land side of that “deal” will be obvious. It can be drawn on a map. Crimea: gone, says Trump. Donetsk: give all of it up, says Putin, apparently with Trump’s blessing.
But the security guarantees? That’s where far more challenging ideas, like credibility, come into play. Could Zelensky rely on the US to deliver on some NATO Article 5-type promise, to defend Ukraine if Russia breaches any peace agreement?
Putin himself might even see an opportunity to further weaken the West, by testing any such guarantees, confident they are a bluff he could call. But all that would be for the future.
For now, it looks like Zelensky will have to weigh up whether he could bring his country with him if he were to cede territory to Russia some of it still in Ukrainian hands or whether he and his people could bear the costs of potentially defying Trump a Nobel Peace Prize, and say no.
If he chose the latter, would the US President immediately end all remaining American support for Ukraine, in terms of military aid and intelligence sharing, for instance?
If that happened, to what extent could Zelensky’s European allies really step in and fill in the gaps left by any full US retreat?